Quelle: Gabriele Martinelli, Head of European Power Research at Refinitiv
Perfect storm brewing in European power next Monday, as temperatures get well below normal and supply is not expected to be enough to meet demand in certain countries.
In particular, we expect a supply gap of 2-8 GW in France, and extremely tight situations also in Belgium and Great Britain. This will require demand side response, which could include forced & controlled demand shedding on a rolling basis.
Demand
The temperature outlook for Monday is significantly colder than normal: daily average temperature in France is expected 0.7 °C, 5.7 °C below normal, and -1.7 degrees in Great Britain, which is 7.3 degrees below normal. This leads power demand to 75 GWh/h on average on Monday in France, which is 7 GWh/h above seasonal normal, even with roughly 5 GWh/h of demand destruction observed at the moment! In hour 19 in particular, we expect peak demand in France at roughly 84 GW.
Supply
Wind Power production is low. Unfortunately, we expect generation no higher than 2.5 GWh/h in France, and around 7.5 GWh/h in Germany, which is 12.5 GWh/h below seasonal normal. In Great Britain, we expect just 2 GWh/h of wind power output on Monday on average, which is 9 GWh/h below the seasonal normal. As a result, the residual demand (demand – wind – solar) is expected at 71 GWh/h on average on Monday in France.
The EDF schedule for Nuclear Power return continues, leading the expected nuclear availability above 40 GW in France on Monday for the first time since March!
Hydro Power can only contribute with up to 12.5 GW of power in France – the hydrological situation is still not back to normal after this summer’s severe drought.
Gas Fired Generation is expected to be maximized both in France and Great Britain, with 9.5 GW in France and 23.5 GW in Great Britain on average on Monday.
Conclusion
Putting that all together, and assuming high net imports to France of up to 13 GW, we still expect a supply gap of 2-8 GW in France on Monday. Not just in the morning and evening peaks, but throughout the day from 7am to 9pm. Yesterday, France managed to receive 16+ GW of imports, most remarkably from Switzerland and Italy. Both countries and also Germany (the largest net exporter) will be 4-6 °C colder on Monday compared to Friday and overall have less capability to export.
In terms of power prices, it gets extremely difficult to forecast these spikes. However, we expect spot prices north of 700 €/MWh on Monday in France, and around 560 €/MWh on Tuesday. Even higher prices in Belgium and Great Britain. For Germany at the moment the tighter day looks Tuesday, with an expected spot of 470 €/MWh. As usual, all fundamentals data and forecasts on Eikon and
